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Monday, December 4, 2006

Some ideas of the stock in mainland China on Dec 4(Just a practice for equity analysis)

- Short-term and Long-term (flexible)

I mentioned that the consumption-based equity (like Mengniu and Parkson), banking industries (like Bank of Communication and China Merchant Bank) can be a good choice to be speculated throughout the period of US dollar depreciation. Some of them may be just exploited and speculated recently, which creates the feeling of discomfort. Apart from them, stocks of the property firms in China should be one of the most powerful tools to hedge the current depreciation of US dollar. They seem to reach the balance growth path, and are recently away from the probe of the investors.

There are plenty firms doing business on property. I appreciate Chinese Overseas Land & Investment Ltd. as a traditional dynamo and leader of Chinese property market. Long time ago, I noticed a less magnificent firm called Shenzhen Investment Ltd. From its name one can notice that it is a "window" of Shenzhen so that it concentrates its business and investment in Shenzhen. Shenzhen is a vibrant place next to Hong Kong, where there are still vast potential to develop further. The company recently focuses on the property investment in Shenzhen. Moreover, it also involves some investments in the infrastructure. Therefore, it can be a right target. Most critically, when observing the financial data of this company, you can find that generally its financial strength is acceptable and has improving trend. Overall it is healthy. In term of value investment, it's still under-valued.

There still exist some other medium-scale Chinese property firms. However, their theme and prospect can be complicated. Moreover, they are usually over-valued. I don't have confidence to ensure its future success, although the wave of the great growth is hardly resisted. Anyway, the speculation heat and the odd to win are still high as soon as the macroeconomic policy is mild and constructively implemented.

Now this company has less hot news than before, I think that it can be a good time to deploy capital to them.